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August showed Canada's economy at a standstill, Q3 recession in sight
Posted on November 3, 2023 |
The Canadian economy faced a slow period in August, raising concerns of a possible mild recession in Q3.
This slowdown is attributed to the central bank's 10 interest rate hikes over the past year.
August's economic performance fell slightly short of the 0.1% month-over-month growth forecasted by experts.
Additionally, the GDP for July was adjusted, indicating a small negative growth instead of the initially reported flat growth.
Initial estimates suggest that the economy likely remained stable in September, with an anticipated 0.1% decline in the third quarter when annualized.
This would mark the 2nd straight quarter of negative growth, following a 0.2% decline in the previous quarter.
Factors like higher interest rates, inflation, forest fires, and drought conditions hurt economic growth in August.
Notably, the projected third-quarter annualized contraction in growth is significantly lower than the Bank of Canada's recent forecast.
They initially predicted a 0.8% expansion, down from the 1.5% projection in July.
Given these economic challenges, the financial markets expect that the central bank will likely maintain the current interest rates at their next policy announcement in December.