IMF lifts UK 2025 outlook but warns of global fallout from U.S. tariff moves

Posted on May 28, 2025   |  

The IMF upgraded the UK’s 2025 growth forecast to 1.2%, up from 1.1%, citing strong Q1 performance and better-than-expected business investment.

Despite the upgrade, UK growth may slow by 0.3% in the second half of 2025 due to:global trade uncertainty, sluggish demand from trading partners and ongoing US tariffs on UK goods

The 2026 forecast remains unchanged at 1.4%.

The UK government welcomed the revision, highlighting recent trade deals with the US, EU, and India.

New agreements are expected to protect jobs, attract foreign investment, and reduce consumer prices.

The UK–US post-Brexit trade deal includes reduced tariffs on UK cars, steel, and aluminum

UK market access for US beef and farm products.

However, a 10% tariff on UK goods from the Trump era still applies.