Suez Canal blockage leads Fitch solutions to adjust Egypt’s GDP growth forecast to 3.7%

Fitch Solutions lowered Egypt’s GDP growth forecast to 3.7% due to weak performance in Q4 FY 2023/2024 and disruptions in the Suez Canal.

The Egyptian economy has lost $8 billion because of a significant drop in Suez Canal revenues amid ongoing Middle East conflicts.

The IMF’s recent mission to Egypt highlighted the challenges of the Gaza-Israel conflict and trade disruptions in the Red Sea.

There has been a substantial decline in Suez Canal receipts, affecting Egypt’s foreign currency reserves.

Despite challenges, Fitch Solutions projects growth above 2.4% in FY 2023/2024, driven by a rebound in non-oil exports and increased investment.

Fitch forecasts Egypt’s real GDP growth to reach 5.1% in FY 2025/2026, supported by a recovery in exports and investments.

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