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In January, At Wharf Gate (AWG) prices for export logs fell dropped to 11 NZD per JAS m³ due to slow demand in China.
Log supply from New Zealand started to decline as smaller forest owners suspended harvesting and big forest owners reduced production volumes.
The supply of spruce into China from Europe also weakened due to a shortage of containers and Covid-19 disruptions to the supply chain.
Forecasts are calculated using anonymized community sentiment within a weighted 60-day window.
This is not official government data and not financial advice.
View Full DisclaimerGenerating forecast…
This forecast is calculated using anonymized community sentiment within a weighted 60-day window.
This is not official government data and not financial advice. Accuracy decreases beyond the 3-period horizon.
View Full Disclaimer
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Methodology & Fairness Statement: To ensure a fair and relevant market outlook, our system uses a weighted decay model to prevent outdated sentiment from skewing current forecasts.
The Active Window: We only count 100% of votes from the current month and the 50% most recent votes from the previous month. Votes older than 60 days are purged from the calculation entirely.
Neutrality Bias: To prevent exaggerated market trends, if "Stable" votes outnumber directional votes, the forecast remains flat.
Opposition Awareness: If the community is divided (e.g., many positive and negative votes), our algorithm automatically flattens the visual slope of the forecast to reflect the lack of consensus. This ensures the graph represents "Community Vibe" rather than an artificial consensus.
Your Voting Rights & Privacy: Your participation in our market surveys is designed with Privacy by Design principles in accordance with GDPR.
Anonymization: Votes are collected as anonymous data points. We do not link your specific directional vote to your personal identity in any public-facing output.
Storage & Time-Stamping: Each vote is time-stamped to ensure it is only used within its relevant 60-day window.
The "Right to be Forgotten": Because votes are month-bound and expire from the active calculation after the previous month closes, your sentiment data is naturally phased out of our live forecasting model every XX days.
Important Disclosure: Not Official Data
This forecast is an indicative sentiment tool and is not a source of verified truth.
Not Government Data: These projections are based on community sentiment and historical trends; they are not official government statistics, audited financial reports, or "inside" data.
Not Financial Advice: The directional arrows (Up/Down/Stable) are for informational and research purposes only. They should not be used as the basis for any investment or trading decisions.
Diminishing Accuracy: Forecasts are generated for a 3-period horizon. Please note that the accuracy of these projections decreases significantly the further they extend into the future.
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