New Zealand timber escapes tariffs yet forestry industry struggles persist

Posted on April 24, 2025   |  

In 2024, 30% of China's furniture exports went to the US, but Vietnam exports double China's value to the US.

The US produces 52% of the furniture it consumes, yet 63% of the inputs used are imported, showing reliance on foreign components.

The 145% US-China tariff is expected to reduce Chinese furniture exports to the US sharply.

New Zealand’s forestry sector has shifted focus to furniture markets as construction demand has declined since 2021.

China’s demand for NZ logs remains strong, with daily off-port movement reaching 70,000 cubic meters in late March.

On-port inventory in China is just under 4 million cubic meters, slightly down from recent weeks.

April CFR prices for NZ logs fell 8–10% from March due to market uncertainty and a consistent yet widespread price reduction of $8–$16/cu m depending on port and exporter.

Exchange rate swings between $US0.55–$0.57 impact AWG returns, where every 1 cent drop in NZD equals $3/cu m loss in revenue.