China’s trade engine revs up, but shippers see little relief in freight rates

Posted on July 3, 2025   |  

With the July 9 deadline approaching for the end of the U.S.-China tariff pause, uncertainty clouds the trans-Pacific trade outlook.

President Trump announced a new deal where China will resume rare earth exports to the U.S. in exchange for the rollback of some U.S. trade countermeasures.

After July 4, the U.S. aims to finalize trade deals with its top 10 partners and may impose tariffs on others unilaterally.

A May 12 tariff cut led to a temporary rise in China-U.S. container volumes, but that growth has since slowed.

Carriers added capacity to the U.S. West Coast anticipating sustained demand, but the market has now become oversupplied.

West Coast freight rates jumped 115% to $6,000 per FEU by mid-June but later dropped 43% to $3,388 — still 22% above late May levels.

East Coast rates also climbed 80% to $7,200 per FEU before dipping 15% to $6,116, prompting carriers to weigh capacity cuts.

Asia-Europe and Mediterranean rates surged 25% in June but cooled by month-end, casting doubt on July GRIs despite unusual capacity reduction plans by carriers.