Global softwood demand is predicted to grow by 48 million m3 surpassing 400 million m3 level until 2025

Posted on April 5, 2021

European demand for sawn timber is expected to grow by 10million m3 to 120 million by 2025
driven by substituting other materials
Overall wood consumption expected to increase with approximately 8-10 Million/m3.
Weaker demand 2021-2022 due to a clear downturn in new housing starts as an effect of current Corona virus situation
MENA market development till 2025- Long term outlook remains sluggish and with current view wood market will remain important for Scandinavian pine especially even though the financial risks and high volatility due to low entry barriers
Main driver for wood consumption still looks favorable from demographic point of view (very low average age), there is an underlaying need for new houses as well as the lack of own raw material
Egypt is predicted to maintain as a market for low grade Scandinavian pine and its importance for overall redwood balance in Europe remains. General development in high degree depending on inflow of foreign currency through tourism as well as inflow of subsidies from US and Saudi Arabia
The underlying US demographics will require approx. 1.8 Million new housing starts on yearly level
Wood consumption is increasing and the reduction of supply from Canada (mainly British Columbia) is to some extent compensated by increased production in US South East
Overall wood consumption is expected to increase with 20 Million/m3 from 2018 reaching 97 Million /m3 in 2025
The US Housing market is slowly recovering towards 1.6 – 1.7 m starts in 2025
US consumption of softwood is forecased to up by 25% or 20 million by 2025
Chines Softwood consumption expected to continue to increase until 2025 with 10 Million/m3.
China is second largest softwood market globally reaching a consumption of 75 Million/m3 until 2025
Russia continues to increase volumes to China. Has a 60 % market share in 2020. Has the ability to increase shares during the coming 5-year period
Canadian imports in decline due to reduction in Canadian production and a strong US market. If continuing they are more likely to remain on 3 Million/m3 level than earlier peaks at 6-7 Million/m3
China will continue to offer possibilities for European producers both in Red- and Whitewood. Especially favoring North Europe for quality reasons. Bark beetle Timber from Central Europe will be exported in big amounts, both as logs and lumber, but is firsthand competing with Canadian and Russian lower grade construction material. Swedish/Finnish material primarily aimed at higher quality furniture segment
Building activity still increase in China. Gives outlet for low quality construction wood
Chinese demand for sawn timber is forecasted to increase by 15%, or 10 million m3, from now to 2025
Japanese housing starts in decline and predicted to continue until 2025
Last peak year 2017 at 950 000 housing starts, now going down to 700-750 000 m3
Wooden house expected to maintain market share of 45 %meaning approx. 335-340 00 houses of which 70 % traditional Post & Beam houses and 30 % 2x4 houses
Long term decline in housing starts predicted due to unfavorable demographics. Average age of 47 (highest among industrial nations) & no immigration makes building outlook very sluggish