Last-minute US-China trade truce disrupts shipping plans ahead of peak season

Posted on May 26, 2025   |  

The US-China 90-day tariff easing surprised shipping lines, causing a rush to adjust Transpacific capacity before peak season.

Tariffs dropped sharply but are not fully removed: US tariffs cut from 145% to 30%, China’s from 125% to 10%, while US steel and aluminum tariffs remain.

This “partial” tariff pause may cause short-term market volatility as carriers adapt to the changes.

Carriers had reduced Transpacific services due to earlier high tariffs and low bookings, creating an operational challenge with likely shipment surges.

Peak season shipments must clear by mid-July to meet the August 14 deadline, but capacity increases on the US West Coast remain limited.

Some capacity growth is emerging on the US East Coast but may come too late to handle the expected demand spike.

Weekly data shows ongoing year-on-year capacity drops on both coasts, with West Coast recovery expected by mid-July and East Coast by late June.

54% of US businesses plan to pass increased costs to consumers, while only 22% will absorb the tariffs themselves.