Timber Exchange recently conducted a survey to understand market expectations for global lumber prices over the coming three months. The results reveal a generally stable outlook, with a major number of respondents predicting minimal price fluctuations within a -5% to +5% range.
However, a significant portion also anticipates price increases, indicating potential upward pressure due to market dynamics. This mix of stability and price increases highlights the industry's adaptability in a volatile economic landscape.
Key Survey Results:
- Price Increase >10%: 17%
- Price Increase 5-10%: 37%
- Price Stability (-5% to +5%): 37%
- Price Decrease >5%: 9%
Steady Prices Expected by the Majority
The survey results indicate that a large proportion of respondents, 37%, expect lumber prices to remain stable, fluctuating within a narrow range of -5% to +5%. This sentiment reflects a market where timber supply and demand forces are balanced, creating an environment where significant price changes are less likely. Both producers and buyers are adapting to steadying market dynamics and evolving industrial needs.
Significant Price Increases Expected
A substantial number of participants anticipate that prices will rise, with many expecting a moderate increase, while others predict a more substantial jump. This outlook is influenced by factors like rising raw material costs, global supply chain challenges, and strong demand in certain regions, all of which could push prices upward in the coming months.
Minority Predicts a Price Drop
Only 9% of respondents foresee a price drop of more than 5%, possibly due to concerns over global oversupply or weakening demand in specific timber markets. Factors such as increased inventories and shifts in regional demand may contribute to this expectation of lower prices in select areas.
A Market in Anticipation
Although stability and price increase are the dominant outlooks, the survey reflects a cautious and adaptive global timber industry. Market participants should closely monitor local and international conditions to effectively steer potential shifts. With fluctuations still possible, staying informed and prepared will be key for those within the lumber sector.
Market Sentiments Compared to the Last Survey
In a previous survey, conducted as part of the Timber Exchange Global Lumber Barometer, the majority of respondents expected price stability, with 55% anticipating minimal fluctuations in the -5% to +5% range. At that time, only a smaller portion expected price increases, with 7% predicting a rise above 10% and 22% anticipating a moderate increase of 5-10%. A further 15% anticipated a price drop of more than 5%.
In contrast, the latest survey shows a shift in market sentiment. Fewer respondents now expect stability (37%), while a larger proportion foresees price increases, with 17% predicting an increase above 10% and 37% expecting a moderate rise of 5-10%. Additionally, only 9% now expect prices to decrease by more than 5%. This change suggests a growing expectation of upward price pressure, likely driven by current market dynamics, including supply chain challenges and rising raw material costs.
About Timber Exchange's Global Lumber Barometer
The Global Lumber Market Barometer is a monthly survey that gathers insights from over 100+ industry professionals, including many market leaders. Subscribers, visitors, and followers of Timber Exchange, who produce, trade, and buy lumber on an industrial scale, answer the key question: “How do you expect lumber/sawn timber prices to change over the next 3 months in your home market and the primary international markets you trade with?” The first survey was conducted in July 2024, and its results help participants make data-driven decisions in a volatile market.
About Timber Exchange
Founded by a team with deep expertise from industry-leading companies like Stora Enso, Setra, Microtec, and CMA CGM - Timber Exchange was created to address the timber industry’s most critical challenges. With Timber Exchange, it’s now possible to access near real-time global market insights, fully automate the timber supply chain, and prevent quality disputes before they occur.
Serving clients in over 20 countries, including some of the largest names in the industry, Timber Exchange is also advised by senior industry leaders. The company is the proud host of the Timber & Technology Podcasts and publisher of the Essential Timber Market Newsletter.
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